você pode tentar este select:
SELECT SUBSTR('M000000000009', 1, 1) || LPAD((TO_NUMBER(SUBSTR('M000000000009',2)) + 1), 12, '0') NEW_SERIAL
FROM DUAL
SELECT SUBSTR('M000000000009', 1, 1) || LPAD((TO_NUMBER(SUBSTR('M000000000009',2)) + 1), 12, '0') NEW_SERIAL
FROM DUAL